At the Munich Security Conference, several prominent Democrats signaled presidential ambitions while facing a sobering message from Europe: the transatlantic relationship may never return to its previous form. As global alliances strain under renewed nationalism and geopolitical rivalry, questions about America’s leadership loom over the 2028 race.
The annual gathering at the Munich Security Conference has long functioned as a testing stage for emerging statesmen, and for years American presidents and presidential hopefuls journeyed to the Bavarian capital to reaffirm Washington’s dedication to Europe and to emphasize that the United States guided the Western alliance. This year’s meeting, though, unfolded amid rising skepticism and strategic reconsideration, as European leaders publicly questioned whether the United States can still lay claim to the role of leader of the free world.
A number of Democratic figures with national ambitions attended the conference, seeking to project steadiness abroad even as domestic politics remain volatile. Among them were California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, and Sen. Mark Kelly. Each appeared intent on demonstrating foreign policy credibility ahead of a potential 2028 presidential campaign. Yet the mood in Munich suggested that reassurance alone may not be enough to restore Europe’s confidence in Washington.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz offered opening remarks that conveyed the tension spreading through the conference halls, speaking openly about a growing rift between Europe and the United States and hinting that America’s once-presumed position of leadership may now be fundamentally in question. His observations echoed wider European concerns that the post–World War II framework, long upheld by U.S. security commitments, is entering a period of deep and far‑reaching change.
European doubts and the strain on the transatlantic alliance
For much of the modern era, the transatlantic partnership rested on mutual confidence in shared democratic values and collective defense. NATO, economic integration, and diplomatic coordination formed the pillars of that system. Yet recent years have tested these foundations. President Donald Trump’s combative rhetoric toward allies and his willingness to revisit long-standing commitments have unsettled European capitals.
In Munich, European officials conveyed a sobering message to visiting Democrats: even if political winds shift again in Washington, trust cannot be instantly restored. Some leaders privately suggested that the damage to the alliance may take generations to repair. The notion that U.S. policy can swing dramatically with each election cycle has forced European governments to contemplate greater strategic autonomy.
Merz acknowledged holding confidential discussions with France about European nuclear deterrence—an extraordinary signal that faith in automatic American protection is no longer absolute. Such conversations would have been nearly unthinkable in earlier decades, when U.S. security guarantees were viewed as unquestioned.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a more restrained note in his address, drawing courteous applause from attendees. His comments stood in clear contrast to the sharper rhetoric Vice President JD Vance delivered at the conference the previous year. Still, Rubio’s overarching point—that the geopolitical landscape has undergone a profound shift—strengthened the sense that a new era has begun. His later trip to Slovakia and Hungary, nations governed by populist leaders aligned with Trump, further highlighted the complexity of America’s present diplomatic stance.
For Democrats seeking to present themselves as stewards of the traditional alliance, the challenge was clear: how to promise stability in a world that increasingly doubts Washington’s consistency.
Presidential ambitions meet geopolitical reality
Several of the Democratic attendees are widely viewed as potential 2028 contenders. In addition to Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez, figures such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Chris Murphy, Sen. Elissa Slotkin, Sen. Ruben Gallego, and former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo were also part of the broader conversation surrounding Democratic foreign policy credentials.
Newsom, whose stature and visibility set him apart in Munich’s crowded corridors, acknowledged that European leaders increasingly see the United States as unpredictable. While he expressed confidence that ties can be repaired, he conceded that many interlocutors doubt a full return to the previous status quo. His message to both Europeans and fellow Democrats emphasized strength and clarity, arguing that American voters historically gravitate toward leaders perceived as decisive.
Ocasio-Cortez’s appearance, promoted by some as a global introduction for the progressive lawmaker, turned out to be more nuanced. When the conversation shifted to Taiwan—a key flashpoint in U.S.-China relations—she paused after being asked whether she would back sending U.S. troops to defend the island in the event of an invasion. Taiwan continues to be a pillar of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific, and any wavering on the matter quickly attracted attention. The moment underscored the sharp learning curve confronting politicians focused on domestic issues as they step onto the international stage.
Even so, Ocasio-Cortez and her allies recast their message with a focus on mistrust toward long-entrenched elites and on the belief that the current international framework has failed to secure fair results for working-class citizens, a critique that echoed wider discussions on globalization and inequality, themes that have been reshaping politics across both sides of the Atlantic.
A diminished American presence in Munich
The atmosphere at this year’s conference stood in contrast to earlier eras when U.S. participation projected unity and confidence. The late Sen. John McCain once made Munich a focal point of American engagement, delivering speeches that championed Western solidarity and democratic values. His presence symbolized bipartisan commitment to the transatlantic alliance.
Although a dinner held in his honor goes on, the lack of an equivalent unifying presence was unmistakable, and turnout from the U.S. House of Representatives proved slimmer than anticipated after Speaker Mike Johnson withdrew the official congressional delegation, while a small group of lawmakers, including Rep. Jason Crow, made the trip on their own to demonstrate sustained involvement.
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, long linked to assertive foreign policy positions, adopted an especially severe tone in his public statements, cautioning that failing to confront hostile regimes might embolden leaders like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and his comments underscored ongoing discussions in Washington over deterrence, intervention, and the consequences of appearing weak.
The cumulative effect was an image of an America wrestling with its global identity. European observers, having experienced the oscillations of U.S. policy over multiple administrations, appeared less willing to assume continuity. Trump’s return to office reinforced the view that his approach is not an anomaly but part of a durable shift in American politics.
Domestic shifts and global consequences
Back in the United States, shifting political currents are taking shape as Trump’s approval levels rise and fall, giving Democrats a fresh opening ahead of the midterm elections. Several attendees at the conference noted that a shift in congressional control might reshape certain elements of U.S. foreign policy. Still, European leaders, though mindful of American electoral rhythms, continue to stress their own strategic agendas that increasingly operate apart from Washington’s domestic disputes.
The larger issue confronting Munich centered on whether the post‑World War II international order is shifting in ways that cannot be undone, a system long shaped by American military power, economic influence, and alliances built on common democratic principles, yet now described by leaders across both continents as evolving into a multipolar landscape where U.S. preeminence is no longer guaranteed.
Merz’s assertion that the rules-based order “no longer exists in this form” encapsulated the moment. His statement echoed sentiments expressed by policymakers who believe Europe must shoulder greater responsibility for its own security and economic resilience.
For Democratic hopefuls, the conference served as both opportunity and warning. It provided a stage to articulate alternative visions of American engagement, yet it also revealed the limits of rhetoric in the face of structural geopolitical change. Winning the White House in 2028 may not automatically restore the title that every American president since the 1940s has claimed.
As Munich concluded, the sense lingered that the world is entering a transitional period—one in which alliances are renegotiated, assumptions reexamined, and leadership redefined. Whether the United States can reestablish itself as the unquestioned anchor of the Western alliance remains uncertain. What is clear is that future presidential contenders will inherit not only domestic divisions but also a global landscape reshaped by skepticism, competition, and the recalibration of power.
